Brexit’s Return? 🤝 EU Wants Britain Back!

UK Public Opinion Shifts: A Decade After Brexit
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) polling reveals a significant shift in British public opinion regarding the UK’s relationship with the European Union, ten years after the Brexit referendum. A clear majority of EU citizens, and a substantial portion of UK voters, now believe that Britain should rejoin the bloc, indicating a widespread recognition of the negative consequences of leaving.

Broad Support for Reintegration
A remarkable 66% of respondents across 15 European countries viewed UK membership as a very good, good, or “neither a good nor a bad” idea. This support significantly outweighed those favoring closer ties (59%) or the status quo (46%). Support for rejoining ranged from 56% in Bulgaria and 59% in France and Italy, to a high of 75% in the Netherlands and Denmark. Notably, even voters for far-right and Eurosceptic parties expressed support for closer relations, including majorities of backers of Poland’s Confederation (71%), Germany’s AfD (58%) and France’s National Rally (58%). This suggests a growing recognition of the economic and political benefits of European integration across the political spectrum.

Brexit’s Negative Impact on Key Priorities
The polling consistently demonstrated that Brexit has negatively impacted the issues that defined the debate a decade ago. Over 60% of UK voters believed Brexit had a negative impact on the cost of living, the economy, youth opportunity, illegal immigration, and trade. Even the majority who voted to leave acknowledged that Brexit had worsened illegal immigration (58%). This disillusionment highlights a fundamental failure of the Brexit narrative to deliver on its promises.

Desire for Closer Economic Ties
A significant portion of the British public expressed a strong desire for closer economic ties with the EU. 66% stated they should be “very or slightly closer,” demonstrating a clear preference for integration over continued divergence. Perhaps most strikingly, 63% of respondents – including 57% of those who voted to leave in 2016 – were willing to accept freedom of movement in exchange for closer trading ties, indicating a willingness to compromise on a key driver of the Brexit vote. This suggests that the issue of immigration, while still relevant, is no longer the dominant concern for many British voters.

Shifting Voter Alignments and Priorities
The research identified three distinct voter camps within the UK: “optimists” (28%) who view European alignment as a geopolitical necessity; “realists” (35%) who support closer ties but still value US ties; and “loners” (27%) who still prioritize national sovereignty. A key finding was the shift in preferences regarding security partnerships, with a majority (58%) favoring closer defensive relations with Europe over the US (18%). Furthermore, British voters expressed a desire to reduce reliance on US arms purchases, advocating for a “buy European” policy (63%), and a willingness to participate in developing an alternative European nuclear deterrent (63%).

A Window of Opportunity for Reintegration
Mark Leonard, the director of the ECFR, interpreted the polling data as a clear signal that the EU is open to the UK’s return and that the British public has fundamentally moved on from 2016. He argued that Brexit had served as an “insurgent vehicle” for rejecting the status quo, but that a decade later, “Brits realise their hopes for a better life outside the EU are unfulfilled and Brexit is undermining the UK’s ability to manage the issues they care about most.” Leonard emphasized a “very broad permissive consensus for going far beyond the government’s current reset,” suggesting a significant opportunity for the UK government to pursue closer relations with the EU.