Rouhani’s Return? Iran’s Crisis & Hope 🇮🇷🙏
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Hassan Rouhani’s presence has consistently reappeared in Iran’s significant moments, even after leaving the central role in decision-making. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, discussions regarding individuals capable of stabilizing the nation’s environment intensified. Rouhani, Iran’s former president from 2013 to 2021, a figure deeply embedded within the country’s political system, had a distinguished career. Born in 1948 in Sorkheh, Semnan province, he received religious training and studied law, culminating in a PhD from Glasgow Caledonian University. He served as a parliamentarian and nuclear negotiator, rising to the presidency in 2013. Despite the Guardian Council’s decision to prevent his candidacy for the Assembly of Experts in January 2024, his extensive background within Iran’s established institutions suggests a continued, albeit constrained, influence.
THE RISE AND RESURGENCE OF HASSAN ROUHANI
Rouhani’s story is inextricably linked to the shifting dynamics within Iran’s political landscape, particularly since the 1979 revolution. His ascent to the presidency in 2013 represented a deliberate attempt to recalibrate Iran’s trajectory within the Islamic Republic’s established framework. He emerged as a pragmatic figure seeking to navigate the complexities of the post-revolutionary era, prioritizing economic relief and diplomatic engagement. This approach was a calculated response to the ideological currents that had dominated Iranian politics since the revolution, including the “Islamic left,” “Islamic liberalism,” and the market-oriented policies of Hashemi Rafsanjani.
A ‘MODERATION’ STRATEGY
Rouhani’s central political pitch was built around the concept of “e’tedal,” or “moderation.” This strategy aimed to balance the two pillars of the Islamic Republic: the “Republic,” characterized by pragmatism, governance, and responsiveness, and the “Islamic” element, representing the system’s ideals, clerical authority, and revolutionary identity. He promised to reduce external pressure, restart economic growth, and lower domestic polarization, all while maintaining the core constraints imposed by the system's religious-constitutional framework. This approach was designed to appeal to a broad spectrum of Iranian society, seeking to mitigate the tensions inherent in the country's political divisions.
THE NUCLEAR DEAL AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
Rouhani’s presidency coincided with a pivotal moment in Iran’s international relations: the negotiation and implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the nuclear deal, in 2015. In September 2014, Iran agreed to major caps on its nuclear programme, a move intended to allay international concerns about its nuclear ambitions. Domestically, Rouhani sold the deal as a route to normalise the economy and curb inflation. However, the agreement’s success was short-lived. In 2018, US President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the JCPOA and reimposed sweeping sanctions, significantly limiting the economic gains Rouhani had promised and fueling the hardliners' arguments against negotiations with the US.
A SECOND MANDATE AND A SHIFTING POLITICAL BALANCE
Despite the challenges posed by the Trump administration’s policies, Rouhani secured a second term in office in 2017, demonstrating continued public support for his moderate approach. This mandate solidified his position within the Iranian political system, but it did not fundamentally alter the underlying power dynamics. The presidency manages day-to-day governance, but it does not hold ultimate authority over key institutions such as the security services, the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guards, or the core media architecture. This reflected the enduring influence of the powerful institutions that remained outside the direct control of the elected president.
THE POST-PRESIDENCY AND A RETURN TO THE FOREFRONT
Following the end of his presidency in 2021, Rouhani largely faded from the public spotlight as conservative dominance grew within Iranian politics. However, with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in January 2024, and the subsequent constitutional arrangement phase until the Assembly of Experts selects a new leader, Rouhani’s name began to resurface in conversations within Iran’s elite circles. This indicated his continued relevance as a figure embodying a governing style characterized by tactical compromise, economic management, and controlled engagement – all while maintaining loyalty to the Islamic Republic’s constitutional-religious framework.
THE SUPREME LEADER’S SUCCESSION AND ROUHANI’S ROLE
As Iran prepares for the selection of the next Supreme Leader, the country faces a crucial question: whether to broaden legitimacy by incorporating pragmatic faces or double down on a security-first posture. Rouhani sits at this crossroads – not the architect of the system, and no longer a principal decision-maker, but a durable indicator of how far Iran’s establishment is willing to bend without breaking. President Masoud Pezeshkian, Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Guardian Council member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi form the interim leadership council that are in charge until the Assembly of Experts announces its pick for the next Supreme Leader.
This article is AI-synthesized from public sources and may not reflect original reporting.